Buyer’s Choice Realty blog

I recently heard about an unfortunate situation on Boston’s north shore, in Manchester. You can find more about it at the site of WCVB tv. Here’s what happened: some unfortunate homeowners purchased a house that was most likely built on an old landfill. They tried to sell their house and potential buyers balked at the last minute. After learning why, the owners had their soil tested. Chemicals galore were lurking in their back yard. Lead, arsenic, mercury. Not exactly healthy. The worst part? Mom was weeks away from giving birth.

Who’s responsible? Surely the builders knew what type of land they were building on, right? Maybe they had no idea - could have just been fulfilling a contract. Surely the town knew the history of the land that was to be built upon, right? It turns out they did, and sent lent a letter to the builder ordering them to stop construction. No one followed up, the house was built, and the rest is history.

The family moved out right after learning about what was present in their yard, and hopefully they will raise a healthy baby. What about the person that sold them the house? If they had done their due diligence about the property, they would have found out this information.

Maybe, maybe not, but if the buyers had used an exclusive buyer’s agent, they would have avoided this unfortunate situation. I can’t express enough how important it is to have someone working on your behalf, not someone just trying to sell you a house. Most consumers are still not aware that they could hire someone, for essentially no money, that would work in their best interest. Something to think about if you plan on ever buying a house.

Shouldn’t we blame REALTORS® for this mess that we currently find ourselves in? A recent study asking consumers how they felt about real estate agents came to some interesting conclusions. When asked about REALTORS® in general, people were mostly wishy-washy - some were in favor, some were not, most were unsure how they felt. But when asked about their particular REALTOR®, about 80% of respondents stated they would work with their agent again. What gives? The majority of business for most agents comes from repeat clients, referrals, and word-of-mouth. Agents should have a long-term interest in the area in which they work, since a few unhappy clients could potentially put them out of business.

I’m sure some agents were only seeing $$$ signs over the past decade, hoping and helping their clients and customers buy properties they could not afford. This is not true for the vast majority of agents, though.

I will place some blame on lenders, especially the big players. Their major concern is writing as many mortgages as possible so they can turn around and sell them. Nothing wrong with that in our capitalist economy, but lenders failed to think long-term and have reaped the seeds of their sowing.

Some blame must also go to global capital providers (those around the world with the big bucks like governments, megabusinesses, sovereign wealth funds, etc.) because all they were looking for was juicy returns on investment - a portfolio of risky loans returns a lot more than T-bills or any other ’safe’ investment. The bottom line for them is greed, and they must be taken to task for it. Will that happen? Their investment losses are probably their only punishment.

The biggest amount of blame must be put on the rating agencies. These companies, like Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s, are responsible for assigning a level of risk to a product. Because so many rely on their rating and only buy/sell AAA rated products, the ratings agencies are ultimately culpable for this mess. Instead of rating subprime loans at a level they should have, like BBB (much riskier than AAA), they decided en masse to rate these loans AAA. After all, the agencies make the most money by rating products AAA (many companies have risk policies that prohibit them from owning lower-rated investments) so that others may comfortably buy and sell the AAA products on the open market.

The ratings agencies are not non-profits, so clearly it is in their best interest to rate highly, as they make more money that way. There should have been more transparency, guidelines, and oversight regarding these companies. Since we cannot change the past, we must make an effort to make sure that this happens in the near future.

How can you help? Write your congressperson expressing your displeasure of the ratings agencies and suggest that they have more government oversight, stricter guidelines as to what really qualifies as AAA, and more clarity in reporting how and why each product receives the rating it does. If this happens, maybe we can prevent another mess like the subprime one from occurring in the future.

Current statistics of homeowners show four types. Those that borrowed at subprime make up 9% of owners. Those who borrowed at prime make up 50%. FHA/VA mortgagees make up 6%, while the remaining 35% of owners own their homes free and clear. So what, right? The flip side of this picture is more telling. Foreclosure statistics show that owners who were approved for subprime loans - they may have paid no money down, did not have income verified, or did not have a sufficient credit score to qualify for a normal, prime loan, among other reasons - comprise 53% of current foreclosures. Prime borrowers make up 33% of this category, while FHA/VA borrowers account for 14% of foreclosures at the moment. Take a minute to let this sink in - one tenth of all homeowners are subprime owners, but they make up more than half of all foreclosures.

The first subprime loans were made in 2000, and none have been made since August of 2007. Roughly 1/5 of all borrowers who have subprime loans are currently late (in default) on their mortgage payments, as opposed to approximately 3% of prime borrowers. The fact that there are no subprime loans being originated right now is a good start, but we will be feeling the effects of this crisis for years. I will examine in my next post who really should be blamed and will try to provide some ways we can fix this problem. For the record, we at Buyer’s Choice Realty encourage all our clients to meet with a lawyer and their lender so they may endeavor to understand the terms of their loan and verify that they can meet their payments.

I recently attended a breakfast featuring Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, as keynote speaker. Dr. Yun recently received the honor of being named to the USA Today’s top 10 economic forecasters (NAR’s press release). As the release states, “The National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has been named among the top 10 economic forecasters by USA Today. Yun is ranked fifth on the list and is responsible for NAR’s real estate statistics and economic forecasting. The annual list recognizes accuracy in forecasting.“

Yun spoke about the state of the current market and backed up his forecasts for the near term with statistical charts and graphs which were very helpful. He believes there will be a modest increase in home sales in the second half of 2008, but because of negative buyer psychology right now (i.e. prices are going down, have been going down, and might continue to keep going down, so why buy now?) the gains in home sales may not be very big. Yun essentially believes that the market is bottoming out right now and should stabilize by the end of this year and start gaining ground again in 2009, though not very rapidly.

It is interesting to note that prices fell nationally 1.5% in 2007. The NAR started keeping market statistics in 1967 and this had not happened in their entire time compiling this data. Dr. Yun believes, as do many others, that this is the first time prices have fallen year-over-year since the great depression in the late 1920s and early 1930s. I must caution you that we are nowhere near entering such a time this time around. The unemployment rate has risen, but nowhere near as drastically as back then. Inflation is steady. Many areas around the country are creating jobs, while the public has experienced the greatest amount of job loss in the midwest due to the struggling auto business and manufacturing/industrial decline in that area.

I read a recent article in the L.A. Times that discusses the perceived benefits of hiring a professional stager to come in and hopefully make your home look more appealing to potential buyers. This article mentions the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents (NAEBA), an organization that we at Buyer’s Choice Realty belong to. Take a look at NAEBA’s own article on staging.

I feel that staging really does work to help a seller get the highest price they can for their home in the shortest amount of time. But, as always, caveat emptor. Buyers should look beyond the pretty surroundings when looking at a potential home. While touring a home, pick up that pretty rug to see if there is damage to the flooring, or any unsightly stains, etc. Fold back those gorgeous designer curtains and see if the windows and their trim are in good shape. Bring along a tape measure to see if your own furniture will fit in any particular room you envision it in.

Stagers are excellent at maximizing the good features of individual rooms by enhancing layout, modernizing furnishings, etc. I applaud them for that and think sellers should consider at least interviewing a stager to see what benefits they could bring for relatively short money (usually less than $3,000 for you having to do hardly any work to get your home in ’showing’ shape).

The problem is that many feel that staging can potentially cover up problems within a home, and the snappy layout may distract buyers from the fact that a living room is actually a lot smaller than it appears with the expertly chosen furniture, and your couch and loveseat and chair and coffee table have no chance of fitting in the room. Overall, staging is a potentially valuable investment for sellers, but buyers must look beyond the fancy trimmings and get a feel of the actual home they will be buying, especially since they will most likely be bringing their own furniture and furnishings into the home.